Can Blockchain Predict The Future And Show “Real World Certainty”?

Can Blockchain Predict The Future

People have long tried to predict the future by all means. And now, blockchain is about to be used for future prediction. This technology may also protect the truth in today’s swaying facts. If you want to make money with bitcoin trading, check Bitcoin Era updated site.

In the 1880s, people stood on the sidewalk along with the NYSE, New York and bet on elections. Newspapers are used to convey betting odds to convey predictions of election outcomes. Modern economists are further refining these forecasting methods. The recent “prediction market” uses the “wisdom of the crowd” gained through the Internet to predict everything from presidential elections to sports games to stock prices.

These concepts were criticized in 2012. It was a time when a significant forecast site was shut down amid volatile economic conditions and pressure from US regulatory agencies. But Silicon Valley didn’t give up on this idea. Currently, new methods for building a market that can “predict the future” are attracting attention. Open prediction market

Blockchain is a ledger that records the transactions of Bitcoin, a digital currency that is exchanged without the control of any central power. However, many start-ups and online communities are now trying to apply the Bitcoin concept to various uses.

Joey Krug, a young engineer at San Francisco’s non-profit Augur, believes that the openness of blockchain can provide an unprecedentedly strong prediction market. Moreover, it could open the prediction market to more people than ever before, leaving regulatory control. Based on Ethereum, Augur is working to build a service that anyone can open and participate in predictive markets.

“It doesn’t matter where the person comes from. Anyone who couldn’t trade before can trade with them,” says Krug. The 21-year-old is also a “Teal Fellow” backed by an entrepreneurship development program by capitalist Peter Thiel.

What Is The Reality?

Ultimately, blockchain may allow for reasonably accurate predictions. It is a counter-measure to critics and poll experts who make little loss in the wrong predictions.

“You have to show it in action, not just say it.” Andrew Miller, a computer scientist at the University of Illinois, says. But like many technologists and financial traders working to create compelling new services based on blockchain ideas, Krug is looking further ahead. Augur is currently in beta testing, but it will be able to provide “real-world certainty” to any online application in the future.

Despite many questions about the grand idea of ​​”real-world certainty,” the blockchain movement is growing. Augur started its business with crowdfunding for $ 5.3 million, but other moves are to explore similar areas, including services such as Gnosis and Bitcoin Hivemind.

Engrave Facts In Digital Space

In theory, if you have better information, the bet size will be bigger. Services like Augur reinforce this dynamic by attracting more people and cash by using blockchain to push markets across borders and remove all betting restrictions.

If there are no restrictions on betting, the best-informed people will place bets, and the market will be more accurate. “Limited betting prevents informed traders from entering and trading with enough capital to move and modify the market,” he said in support of Augur’s establishment. 

Such markets are a means of predicting the future if, for a sufficient number of forecasts, a sufficient number of people invest enough money and bet digital currencies on the outcomes they believe will occur. But that’s just part of what Augur is doing. The prediction market needs to know what has happened to make a pay-out. For example, did Donald Trump win or lose? In the old prediction market, Congress decides it. However, Augur takes a different approach. Krug used their blockchain to develop an engine for recording results. It’s a way to write facts in digital space.

Richard Clave, the founder of the blockchain hedge fund Numerai, which invested in Augur, said: “This isn’t just about predicting what’s going to happen in the future; it’s about knowing what’s happening now.”

Digital Market Facts

Augur’s reporting engine can power any economic agreement. For example, will payments be made if a company defaults? Check out Augur’s blockchain to see if the company has defaulted. For example, if President Trump’s National Security Adviser resigns and a “reporter” funded by Augur’s Rep token confirm his resignation, this fact will be burned into the blockchain. This digital fact may be used for everything from Wikipedia to Facebook and Google search results.

In an era when fake news spreads on Facebook and the president doesn’t know the difference between online hoaxes and the elaborate coverage of the New York Times, it’s a possible idea to create a digital market that shows the facts.

However, like the many ideas that have emerged from the Bitcoin world, the concept behind Augur is strange and perhaps overly optimistic. Microsoft researcher David Rothschild points out that the instability of the Ethereum tokens people use to bet on the prediction market impairs the accuracy of their forecasts. And the attendees haven’t gathered enough to make Augur’s reporting engine work properly, and it hasn’t been proven yet.

But in an era when the future, and even the present facts, is uncertain, this big idea is at least worth a try.