All Posts Tagged With: "prediction"
Fortune Tellers and Planners, Public and Private
Above all we should remember that government is no wiser and in many ways less well informed than private actors.
21May2009 | Stephen Davies | 1 comment | ContinuedThink of a Number: A Theory of Rational Forecasting
We don’t know how many blood-curdling economic forecasts are the result of career planning rather than sincere professional conviction. What we do know, though, is that such forecasts are the best method of deepening the gloom, frightening the credulous, and making the worst more probable.
21May2009 | Anthony de Jasay | 0 comments | ContinuedFortune-Cookie Economics
It is little wonder that some economists want to be perceived as having fortune-telling abilities. After all, history and literature are full of examples of revered and exalted prophets and oracles. So we can understand why many economists sit up straight, clear their throats, look us right in the eye, and foretell next year’s change [...]
1Jun2004 | Arthur E. Foulkes | 0 comments | Continued-
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