All Posts Tagged With: "predicting the future"
Freedom and the Pitfalls of Predicting the Future
The prospects for freedom in America and in many other parts of the world appear dim. Government continues to grow bigger and more intrusive, imposing tax burdens that siphon vast amounts of private wealth. Extrapolating these trends out for the foreseeable future, it would seem that the chances for winning liberty are highly unlikely. There is only one problem with this pessimistic forecast: the future is unpredictable and apparent trends do change.
1Jun2006 | Richard M. Ebeling | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894
We commonly read or hear reports to the effect that “If trend X continues, the result will be disaster.” The subject can be almost anything, but the pattern of these stories is identical. These reports take a current trend and extrapolate it into the future as the basis for their gloomy prognostications. The conclusion is, [...]
1Sep2004 | Stephen Davies | 78 comments | ContinuedFortune-Cookie Economics
It is little wonder that some economists want to be perceived as having fortune-telling abilities. After all, history and literature are full of examples of revered and exalted prophets and oracles. So we can understand why many economists sit up straight, clear their throats, look us right in the eye, and foretell next year’s change [...]
1Jun2004 | Arthur E. Foulkes | 0 comments | Continued-
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