All Posts Tagged With: "forecasting"
The Improbable Prose of Nassim Nicholas Taleb
As I get older and more cynical, I tend to look down on the latest “hot” idea or person. Sure, teenage pop stars and the novelist Dan Brown are talented, but they’re not nearly as extraordinary as their popular status would suggest. Every once in a while, though, something impresses me despite such cynicism. Nassim [...]
24Mar2010 | Robert P. Murphy | 4 comments | ContinuedFortune Tellers and Planners, Public and Private
Above all we should remember that government is no wiser and in many ways less well informed than private actors.
21May2009 | Stephen Davies | 1 comment | ContinuedThink of a Number: A Theory of Rational Forecasting
We don’t know how many blood-curdling economic forecasts are the result of career planning rather than sincere professional conviction. What we do know, though, is that such forecasts are the best method of deepening the gloom, frightening the credulous, and making the worst more probable.
21May2009 | Anthony de Jasay | 0 comments | ContinuedIllusion of Control
Christopher Mayer is a commercial loan officer and freelance writer. Every day at noon a man shows up at a street corner with a green flag and a bugle. Every day he waves the flag and blows a few notes on the bugle. Then he goes away. A police officer notices this man’s behavior and [...]
1Sep2001 | Christopher Mayer | 0 comments | Continued-
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