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In 1969 economist Harold Demsetz identified a flaw in much public policy analysis, the “Nirvana Fallacy”:

“The view that now pervades much public policy economics implicitly presents the relevant choice as between an ideal norm and an existing ‘imperfect’ institutional arrangement. This nirvana approach differs considerably from a comparative institution approach in which the relevant choice is between alternative real institutional arrangements.”

A common form of the fallacy is rejection of the imperfect free (or freer) market in favor of (presumably) omniscient, omnipotent, and omnibenevolent government regulation. A “flawed” but achievable arrangement is set against an (alleged) ideal, though it is left unestablished whether the ideal can in fact exist. The problem here should be obvious. If the ideal is not available, then the comparison is worthless. If the rejected option were compared to other achievable—also imperfect—alternatives, it might well be judged superior.

A recent example of the Nirvana Fallacy comes from Sen. Charles Schumer of New York. Asked how the Obama administration will prevent another financial crisis, Schumer said:

“You’re gonna find a different system of regulation. . . . So like when Bear Stearns began to run into trouble, they’re gonna call the heads of Bear Stearns in and say, ‘All right fellas, you’re getting rid of those two hedge funds; you’re gonna raise more capital—even if it means you have lower profitability. . . . [Y]ou do it or we’re gonna take sanctions against you.’ . . . You need a tough, strong regulator, unified—no holes in the system— . . . who . . . sees the problem ahead of time, so they have complete transparency, they know exactly what’s going on. . . .” (emphasis added)

We see at once that Schumer assumes what he must demonstrate: namely, that the regulator can overcome the Hayekian “knowledge problem,” the limits posed by the fact that the most critical economic information is not readily obtainable statistical data but rather is diffused and often unarticulated knowledge, including know-how.

Look at what I’ve highlighted in his statement, and ask yourself what Schumer apparently has not asked himself: How will the regulators “know exactly what’s going on”? Spotting Bear Stearns’s specific hedge-fund problems “ahead of time” would have required insights and hunches that only entrepreneurs with money at risk could be expected to have—and even those might not have been enough. Fortune-telling is not a widely distributed skill. It’s not a matter of toughness or access to Bear’s books but, at the very least, of entrepreneurship (not to mention luck), which is profit driven. Bureaucratic regulators bring no such talent to their jobs. More likely, they’d be enforcing formal (possibly outdated and irrelevant) rules, looking for a repeat of the last problem, while missing the next one entirely. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb might say, it’s the next black swan, not the last one, that bites you.

Schumer’s fallacy is actually worse than the standard Nirvana Fallacy. He doesn’t compare his unrealizable regulatory vision to the free market but rather to our corporatist economy replete with government bailouts, moral hazard, easy credit, and all the other ways of disabling market forces.

The closest we can get to what Schumer says he wants is through the discipline—that is, the regulation—imposed by the unfettered market. That includes bankruptcy’s Sword of Damocles and the freedom of traders to sell short—that is, to profit by betting that a company’s stock is overvalued and communicating that information to the market early. Predictably, the government is planning to restrict short selling. Bad regulation drives out good.

* * *

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