The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894
We commonly read or hear reports to the effect that “If trend X continues, the result will be disaster.” The subject can be almost anything, but the pattern of these stories is identical. These reports take a current trend and extrapolate it into the future as the basis for their gloomy prognostications. The conclusion is, to quote a character from a famous British sitcom, “We’re doomed, I tell you. We’re doomed!” Unless, that is, we mend our ways according to the author’s prescription. This almost invariably involves restrictions on personal liberty.
These prophets of doom rely on one thing—that their audience will not check the record of such predictions. In fact, the history of prophecy is one of failure and oversight. Many predictions (usually of doom) have not come to pass, while other things have happened that nobody foresaw. Even brief research will turn up numerous examples of both, such as the many predictions in the 1930s—about a decade before the baby boom began—that the populations of most Western countries were about to enter a terminal decline. In other cases, people have made predictions that have turned out to be laughably overmodest, such as the nineteenth-century editor’s much-ridiculed forecast that by 1950 every town in America would have a telephone, or Bill Gates’s remark a few years ago that 64 kilobytes of memory is enough for anyone.
The fundamental problem with most predictions of this kind, and particularly the gloomy ones, is that they make a critical, false assumption: that things will go on as they are. This assumption in turn comes from overlooking one of the basic insights of economics: that people respond to incentives. In a system of free exchange, people receive all kinds of signals that lead them to solve problems. The prophets of doom come to their despondent conclusions because in their world, nobody has any kind of creativity or independence of thought—except for themselves of course.
A classic example of this is a problem that was getting steadily worse about a hundred years ago, so much so that it drove most observers to despair. This was the great horse-manure crisis.
Nineteenth-century cities depended on thousands of horses for their daily functioning. All transport, whether of goods or people, was drawn by horses. London in 1900 had 11,000 cabs, all horse-powered. There were also several thousand buses, each of which required 12 horses per day, a total of more than 50,000 horses. In addition, there were countless carts, drays, and wains, all working constantly to deliver the goods needed by the rapidly growing population of what was then the largest city in the world. Similar figures could be produced for any great city of the time.*
The problem of course was that all these horses produced huge amounts of manure. A horse will on average produce between 15 and 35 pounds of manure per day. Consequently, the streets of nineteenth-century cities were covered by horse manure. This in turn attracted huge numbers of flies, and the dried and ground-up manure was blown everywhere. In New York in 1900, the population of 100,000 horses produced 2.5 million pounds of horse manure per day, which all had to be swept up and disposed of. (See Edwin G. Burrows and Mike Wallace, Gotham: A History of New York City to 1898 [New York: Oxford University Press, 1999]).
In 1898 the first international urban-planning conference convened in New York. It was abandoned after three days, instead of the scheduled ten, because none of the delegates could see any solution to the growing crisis posed by urban horses and their output.
The problem did indeed seem intractable. The larger and richer that cities became, the more horses they needed to function. The more horses, the more manure. Writing in the Times of London in 1894, one writer estimated that in 50 years every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure. Moreover, all these horses had to be stabled, which used up ever-larger areas of increasingly valuable land. And as the number of horses grew, ever-more land had to be devoted to producing hay to feed them (rather than producing food for people), and this had to be brought into cities and distributed—by horse-drawn vehicles. It seemed that urban civilization was doomed.
Crisis Vanished
Of course, urban civilization was not buried in manure. The great crisis vanished when millions of horses were replaced by motor vehicles. This was possible because of the ingenuity of inventors and entrepreneurs such as Gottlieb Daimler and Henry Ford, and a system that gave them the freedom to put their ideas into practice. Even more important, however, was the existence of the price mechanism. The problems described earlier meant that the price of horse-drawn transport rose steadily as the cost of feeding and housing horses increased. This created strong incentives for people to find alternatives.
No doubt in the Paleolithic era there was panic about the growing exhaustion of flint supplies. Somehow the great flint crisis, like the great horse-manure crisis, never came to pass.
The closest modern counterpart to the late nineteenth-century panic about horse manure is agitation about the future course of oil prices. The price of crude oil is rising, partly due to political uncertainty, but primarily because of rapid growth in China and India. This has led to a spate of articles predicting that oil production will soon peak, that prices will rise, and that, given the central part played by oil products in the modern economy, we are facing intractable problems. We’re doomed!
What this misses is that in a competitive market economy, as any resource becomes more costly, human ingenuity will find alternatives.
We should draw two lessons from this. First, human beings, left to their own devices, will usually find solutions to problems, but only if they are allowed to; that is, if they have economic institutions, such as property rights and free exchange, that create the right incentives and give them the freedom to respond. If these are absent or are replaced by political mechanisms, problems will not be solved.
Second, the sheer difficulty of predicting the future, and in particular of foreseeing the outcome of human creativity, is yet another reason for rejecting the planning or controlling of people’s choices. Above all, we should reject the currently fashionable “precautionary principle,” which would forbid the use of any technology until proved absolutely harmless.
Left to themselves, our grandparents solved the great horse-manure problem. If things had been left to the urban planners, they would almost certainly have turned out worse.
*See Joel Tarr and Clay McShane, “The Centrality of the Horse to the Nineteenth Century American City,” in Raymond Mohl, ed., The Making of Urban America (New York: SR Publishers, 1997), pp. 105–30. See also Ralph Turvey, “Work Horses in Victorian London” at www.turvey.demon.co.uk.
Comment by Aharon A. Lavi on 19 May 2009:
Great article, helped me alot with something I\’m working on right now.
Pingback by Feeling peaky about the future? « Thomas the Think Engine on 11 November 2009:
[...] concerned enough to do extrapolation is generally the moment of the most rapid change… As the freeman online explains, in the 1800s, the number of horses was a major issue in London. “Writing in the [...]
Pingback by Project TOTO · Climate Change, Poverty and The Great Horse Poo Debate of 1898 on 8 December 2009:
[...] Similar figures could be produced for any great city of the time.* (The Freeman) [...]
Comment by Ruth Miale on 9 December 2009:
Costs of stabling horses and parking motor vehicals costs are born by the vehical operator.
Sounds like manure pickup wasn’t regulated by law to be managed by those whose operated those livery businesses–was the cost of cleanup allowed to be taxed from the clients (private) and businesses who profitted from the use of this transport?
In our modern era Mass transit moves the smog production back to a easily forgotten coal fired electrical plant looming as a rider on the prevailing winds from the Western (U.S.).
Smog adds costs to everyone in breathing distance to it–and we all pick up the tab in the form of high health care costs, inefficiencies of work, because of lost days for health, damage to equipment and buildings, extra transport for extra healthcare and its supplies, staff, and more; ill children (who need care), and probably contribute to high numbers in neonatal crises, and depression. Reduced oxygen in our breath clouds our thinking.
And yet–we’ve got people who seem to think universal health care is a mercy, a charitable favor.
When we make pollutants universal–and often relegate their worst effluent to poorer regions and sections of the country or cities–
who owes the funding of healing the health problems it creates?
If we cannot tax the producers of it (“it will chase industry out of our state”)–the governments which literally license these entities to operate ought to pick up the tab.
We need a nation-wide, international tax on polluting. So there is no place to run from taxes and no new location to move and take the jobs. Everywhere they go–they could be regulated for the crap they produce.
And, while we are at it–why do we run the hamster wheel of allowing these nasty pollutants, getting sick, using big pharma outrageously expense remedies–assigned us by doctors who seem to have an exclusive contract to stick to that narrow option? There is an economic engine here that leaves us each the hamster, the sick hamster, and the dead hamster.
I can think of better ways to use my life, my money and my death!
Comment by Andy green on 23 December 2009:
I coined the term ‘horseshit statistic’ – as a cousin to ‘bullshit’ to describe how an expert extrapolates a figure, based on current assumptions, to create a stark, negative scenario. So, when confronted with such claims we should descibe them as ‘horseshit!’
Comment by Drik on 9 June 2010:
Just imagine if the government had stepped in and micromanaged everything with mandates. We would still be riding horses and they would be the major source of manure in our lives, instead of DC.
Pingback by The Great Cow-Manure Crisis of 2010: Amish Farming? « Journal of Natural Food and Healing on 9 June 2010:
[...] 9, 2010 · Leave a Comment The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894 in major cities is nothing like the Great Cow-Manure Crisis of 2010 going on in rural [...]
Comment by Johnny on 11 June 2010:
There’s no question that America has a Manure Crisis that goes back to the middle 1800s. The manure that flows out of Washington DC poisons the streams of thought for all of us. This toxic effect robs us of our energy and has other deadly consequences. Natural manure, produced by horses and cows, doesn’t scare me.
Pingback by Dirty Jobs « wanderings on 13 June 2010:
[...] is built in coming months, for now it is all part of the daily routine. Ever heard of the Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894? Probably not, I hadn’t either until I had this new interest in horse manure. Let’s [...]
Comment by Aleksander on 12 July 2010:
On the other hand, we have human-caused deforestation of Levant in neolitic (http://www.usj.edu.lb/mpl/pdf/hajar-2009.pdf). The bottom line is that the future is unknown, and we should avoid taking on risks where we can not afford some of the possible consequences.
Comment by James Madison Fan on 12 July 2010:
This should be titled “Mr. Davies Defines Optimism Bias by Example.”
What he ignores is the manure crisis was a reality that was accidentally relieved by the automobile rather than the automobile being intentionally invented for that purpose. The question he fails to address is what would have happened if the automobile had not occurred in such a timely manner or the technology had proven impractical? Necessity may well be the mother of invention but counting on providence to resolve pressing issues is not a prudent way to run a nation much less a business. He needs to take a course on Cost/Benefit analysis because his “que sera sera” attitude may work when applied to philosophy or watching brain tripe like “Pollyanna” but fails miserably when applied to economics and science.
In many cases the doomsayers that Mr. Davies decries allow the situation they warn against to be avoided. If marine conservationists hadn’t made the public aware of the pathetic state of whale populations many species would be extinct by now. Offering that their worries were unfounded because the whales did not become extinct grossly undervalues the effort and effect of their campaign. China’s population was growing at an unsustainable rate and it has taken draconian efforts by the government to get it under control. Were it not for “population bomb” doomsayers China’s population would probably be over 3 billion by now.
For every case of failed warnings there are as many if not more cases of unheeded warnings leading to disaster. Churchill warned Baldwin and Chamberlin that Hitler was a schmuck and they called him a war monger. The French were told New Orleans was a death trap when they built it below sea level 300 years ago and it took that long for a large enough hurricane to turn it into an aquarium. Until 2005 the doomsayers were wrong and suddenly they were right. Rather than learn not to build a city in a punch bowl they’re rebuilding it. Brilliant.
“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” – George Santayana
The fact is that a significant portion of planning a business has to do with forecasting the future. Do I cut back on toppings and the quality of cheese on the pizzas I make in an effort to cut production costs and will that offset lost revenues when customers stop coming? Do I keep offering 0% financing on cars purchased from my dealerships or do I raise it to 5%. Can I offset the potential loss of customers with an increase in the number of extras such as a DVD player, side airbags, roadside service, and repair packages and does this justify the cost?
Discarding the sciences of statistics, economic forecasting, and cost/benefit analysis in favor of the hope that Icarus will show up and invent wings as necessary is entirely imprudent and impractical even if it does rid of us a few annoying doomsayers and busy bodies.
Pingback by The Earth: Not our mother, not our sister, not a living thing, but our treasure trove, our observatory, our library, our spaceship and our home | Uncommon Descent on 16 November 2010:
[...] I might not have been so credulous. Predictions of disaster based on extrapolations are not new, as this interesting article on the great horse manure crisis of 1894 illustrates. Writing in the Times of London in 1894, one [...]
Pingback by The Rat Race: NYC Style « get NYC'd on 17 November 2010:
[...] that New Yorkers will overcome. After all, we’ve been in a pickle like this before—take the Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894 as an example. Cities like NYC and London were considered doomed because horses produced some 2.5 [...]
Pingback by Your tax dollars at work Quip of the Day - Orange Punch : The Orange County Register on 6 December 2010:
[...] “Perhaps before the year is out Congress will have addressed the pressing problems of junk faxes and horse manure on New York streets.” [...]
Comment by Edward McCain on 6 December 2010:
re: James Madison Fan
“rather than the automobile being intentionally invented for that purpose.”
So some guy said “Hey, I’ve got a crazy idea, let’s build a horseless carriage just for grins and giggles.” instead of seeing a need for something (not feeding and stabling a horse and paying for upkeep and tack, etc.), right?
The point is that automobiles solved the problem. Other inventiveness would have solved the problem if the automobile hadn’t come along. If the solution was to dig canals for transport, you would probably have found something else to complain about.
Point is – every time a crisis arises, mankind deals with it. Even if that means we pack our bags and move to a more suitable location.
Comment by Ohio Ken on 7 December 2010:
re: James Madison Fan
I believe it is equally fallacious to assume that nothing will be changed in the future to adjust the oncoming crisis. My dad bought a hybrid car because he sees an oil shortage, my aunt drives a diesel, and I ride a dirtbike (weather permitting) because we don’t care to pay the price of gasoline. Without a perceived crisis there may not have been a solution, but then again there might have been anyway. It is fair to criticize the author on this basis, but then you went on to propose the opposite with no stronger argument than the one you find so thin. Very well, be a pessimist. I see God’s hand in the works of Men, and I see salvation from our earthly ills flow from the brains of naked apes just like myself.
While a true ‘harmony of interests’ is a pipe dream, better ideas supplant weaker ideas, and technology marches forward. Today’s problem begets tomorrow’s millionaire. I see traffic fatalities as a much larger problem than auto exhaust, but then my home state is one of the places the population has shrunk over the last ten years, so who cares what I think.
Comment by Fishplate on 7 December 2010:
Remember, gasoline was used as fuel because it was a cheap byproduct of the lamp oil business.
Comment by Student on 7 December 2010:
Don’t scoff at the risk of inundation by horse manure. Massive amounts of it continue to be produced by the editors of the New York Times.
Pingback by Orka – lykill alls « hjalli.com – Hjálmar Gíslason on 7 December 2010:
[...] horft er á svartsýnar spár er samt alltaf gott að muna eftir hestaskítskrísunni 1894. Lærdómurinn sem draga má af henni er auðvitað sá að hversu nákvæmlega sem spár eru [...]
Comment by James Madison Fan on 8 December 2010:
Mr. McCain & Ohio Ken,
Please allow me to clarify.
I have difficulty with the author’s description of examining trends and drawing a logical conclusion based on these trends as “doomsaying.”
Statistical analysis is a core principle in everything from Science to Economics to gambling. The opulence of Vegas is a monument to basing policy on luck rather than math. If you don’t understand odds theory and do math in your head I wouldn’t recommend playing Black-Jack unless you like to lose money. Even then, the true mathematician realizes the best odds in Vegas involve leaving the casino and investing in a reliable stock.
To a Scientist, Mathematician, or Statistician the glass isn’t half-full or half=empty. The volume of the container is at 50%. Science is about objective observation and logical conclusions, not pessimism or optimism. When a scientist offers a logical conclusion based on data he is not offering that nothing can be done to avert this calamity only what happens if nothing is done in an effort to avert the calamity.
Applying this to the manure crises we can examine the rate of accumulation, price of cleaning and relocating, availability of open space to hold the manure, etc. and determine how long it will take to burry the city eye deep in dung – if – the status quo remains. That defines the scope of the problem and the time available to find a solution.
Once that is done it is done we can examine different courses of action based on current technology and one of those courses might be developing new technology and hoping that it can be researched and implemented before the situation becomes critical.
In addition to the mischaracterization of statistical analysis as alarmism, his example of the automobile being the intentional cure is erroneous. The first car was invented in the mid 17th century as a toy for a Chinese emperor and the idea wasn’t revisited until the late 18th Century (1770). The first internal combustion engine was invented around 1800 so the car had been around for more than a century when the manure crisis arrived.
The thing that made cars viable was the invention of refining the discovery of which had exactly – zero – to do with the accumulation of horse turds in the inner city. The fact that this cured the manure crisis is entirely coincidental. A happy accident and a timely one, but unintentional nonetheless.
I don’t think it is at all prudent to base business decisions much less scientific ones on the desperate hope that the Supreme Being will miracle an idea into someone’s head at the last moment like we’re living in an adventure movie where McGyver saves the day with a paperclip and some bubble gum half a minute before the end credits roll if for no other reason than we don’t have the luxury of a rewrite if we screw it up.
Comment by James Madison Fan on 8 December 2010:
There is yet another reply above this one that is being held for no discernable reason.
Is Libertarian-Censor an oxymoron? Johnny Swift thy name is Freeman. Just what sort of thought on liberty is censorship? Not a good one I think.
Comment by jenna on 9 December 2010:
maybe they are censoring you for stupidity
Comment by James Madison Fan on 9 December 2010:
Don’t you ever tire of being the poster child for Sharia Law?
Pingback by Why the great (Raleigh) food truck debate is bullshit « The Foodwhisperer on 26 January 2011:
[...] Food trucks are the new Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894. [...]
Pingback by Oil – Thou shalt not do linear extrapolation! « The end of civilization on 3 March 2011:
[...] March 3, 2011 by hpx83 in Media Monitor 0 I found a great article from the Freeman titled “The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894″. It argues that making linear projections is pointless, because the future is too complex and too [...]
Pingback by Something of Interest » The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894 on 25 March 2011:
[...] http://www.thefreemanonline.org/columns/our-economic-past-the-great-horse-manure-crisis-of-1894/ [...]
Pingback by 5 Real Life Deus Ex MacGyvers | Stuporcollider on 10 May 2011:
[...] almost twice as likely to die from a horse accident than a car accident today, and would produce veritable mountains of dung. The steps leading to doors in many urban areas, whilst looking good today, would have been [...]
Pingback by Data Crunch Crisis » Seven Foot Tall Cactus on 19 June 2011:
[...] there a bandwidth crisis? Well, I personally believe, just like the Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894, that we will find a way around it, but like all these things, it will come at a cost. Some of [...]
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Comment by barbara corson on 29 June 2011:
-Whether or not problems in the past were “solved” depends on your point of view. Just because YOUR life is lookin’ good becuase of the way you “solved” a problem, it doesn’t follow that everyone is as happy with your solution as you are. I hate cars and traffic. I’d rather shovel horse shit anyday, it makes great compost.
-Sometimes people who predict a problem are right. According to the US census bureau, net US population is currently about 6000 new additional people per 24 hours. During the same 24 hours, the US loses about 2000 acres of farmland to “development”. Even if these figures are exaggerated, it seems obvious to me that there is a trend here that needs to be addressed.
-as far as saying that “there is no problem that humans won’t be able to solve so that we can keep on multiplying forever”: that’s exactly what cancer cells would say if they could talk.
Comment by James Madison Fan on 29 June 2011:
Good point Barbara.
The problem of horse poop pollution didn’t go away, it was replaced with a different type of pollution.
Comment by Joe Schmoe on 29 June 2011:
“The problem of horse poop pollution didn’t go away, it was replaced with a different type of pollution.”
And, surprise surprise, that’s going away too.
Comment by James Madison Fan on 29 June 2011:
Because of a corporate environmental agenda based on the harm pollution causes or due to massive fines and suits brought by “alarmists” environmentalist whackos similar to the ones in the article?
Pingback by UK pension age rise on 6 July 2011:
[...] should have done was introduce a horse manure tax, and open an exchange to trade horse manure. The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894 | The Freeman | Ideas On Liberty Author of the bestselling book "The oceans will boil" Reply With Quote [...]
Comment by Ted Peters on 11 October 2011:
If our unions had their way, these jobs never would have been lost.
Comment by Gary on 13 October 2011:
“The closest modern counterpart to the late nineteenth-century panic about horse manure is agitation about the future course of oil prices. ….We’re doomed!”
Guess what…this time we’re out of ideas. The problem with “don’t worry, there’s always a solution” is that it is based on faith that we will always find a solution. So far we have not found another miracle energy source, like oil. We went from coal, to whale oil, to kerosene, to crude oil. Cold fusion was thought possible but nothing has been heard of it since. So where is this miracle since we’re about to face Peak Oil in about 15 years!!!
Pingback by Anglican Samizdat , Archive » The horse manure problem on 23 October 2011:
[...] nineteenth century horse manure problem: Nineteenth-century cities depended on thousands of horses for their daily functioning. All [...]
Comment by Axel Bregnsbo on 30 October 2011:
“Bill Gates’s remark a few years ago that 64 kilobytes of memory is enough for anyone”
A common misattribution, see http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Bill_Gates#Misattributed
Pingback by Whatever happened to "crossing sweepers", OWS protestors? - US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum on 20 November 2011:
[...] urinating and crapping so again.. where are the "crossing sweepers" when we NEED THEM??? The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894 | The Freeman | Ideas On Liberty AHH>>> the "good old days" before the air polluting [...]
Pingback by Keystone Pipeline: Yes Or No - Page 11 - US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum on 23 December 2011:
[...] waited for the corpses to putrefy so they could more easily be sawed into pieces and carted off. The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894 | The Freeman | Ideas On Liberty POINT IS wring your hands… but have a little faith that in 200 years from now WE PROBABLY we'll [...]
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Pingback by The Great Horse-Manure Crisis of 1894 « Economics Info on 9 February 2012:
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Comment by andis on 10 February 2012:
Great article. One more example- at the height of the Roman empire, they already had all the materials and knowledge to make the first steam engine (I believe I read somewhere that somebody already had plans of such an apparatus or even built it) but it wasn’t technologically viable because slavery existed in Roman Empire and slaves were much cheaper to use for hard work… so nothing came out of it.
The same’s with the example about the car. Sure the prototypes were created for Chinese emperors or somebody else but they didn’t see any FINANCIAL GAIN in making these devices bigger, better and cheaper to run. It took years until people understood that horse power isn’t a viable resource for big cities and then people rediscovered the car and made it the main means of transportation. Many people still use horses in underdeveloped countries- why? Not because they wouldn’t want a car but because they don’t see any benefit (financially) of owing it/ cannot afford…
The same with oil- as soon as oil prices will reach the level where they will no longer be economically viable, something else will take its place- electric cars would be my first guess now, in South America many people are using ethanol already.
It’s not like there’s nothing happening in the field of other energy sources. Electric cars are becoming more and more popular and better, other fuel sources are investigated, young people switch to bikes/ electric powered bikes. It’s just that the oil prices have not yet reached the level where they are unbearable but we’ll never see them reach that level…. In maybe 15 years you’ll wake up and read that oil has ended and you’ll go out and get into your electric car and drive to work as nothing had happened. Just like it was with horse manure crisis.
It has nothing to do with accidentally stumbling upon some discovery- the technology is there, everything is there- it’s just not yet economically viable. Another example- why are we not going to the Moon now?? The technology is there, probably even better as more than 40 years have passed since 1969, so why aren’t we doing that??? Cause we live in capitalism, nobody cares about anything until they can get some financial or other gain out of it.
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Pingback by Is it possible to read the brain of TIs via Satellite? on 28 February 2012:
[...] know in 1894 there was a great horse manure crisis. Some fine gentlemen took the "logical" conclusion that the cities of the world would be [...]
Pingback by blacklog » Blog Archive » The Horse Manure Crisis on 1 March 2012:
[...] favorite part of the video narrates the story of the horse manure crisis of the 1890s, where a significant group of world class urban planners predicted that 20th century [...]
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Comment by hemelvaart 2012 on 3 April 2012:
Just imagine if the government had stepped in and micromanaged everything with mandates. We would still be riding horses and they would be the major source of manure in our lives, instead of DC.
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Could you image if we were still operating by horse today? Would methane be the issue versus carbon monoxide?
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Comment by Andrea on 17 May 2012:
“We commonly read or hear reports to the effect that “If trend X continues, the result will be disaster.” The subject can be almost anything, but the pattern of these stories is identical. These reports take a current trend and extrapolate it into the future as the basis for their gloomy prognostications. The conclusion is, to quote a character from a famous British sitcom, “We’re doomed, I tell you. We’re doomed!” Unless, that is, we mend our ways according to the author’s prescription. This almost invariably involves restrictions on personal liberty.”
I think you are correct when you say that these, “prophets of doom” are shortsighted as far as not seeing the limitless creativity of human beings. But two issues make me think of other shortsightedness that are not addressed in your fascinating article.
First, what is the historical significance of the Black Death? I think the massive repercussions of too much filth (following the formula that it derives from a germ in a flea on a rat in a civilization of filth… And ring around the rosy…ashes, ashes we all fall down) might cause people who have been through it (or know history) to be a bit gloomy in their predictions of the present into the future when they see similar circumstances.
I’ve discovered if children make up songs about it, it’s significant. And if those songs continue for centuries, well, it made an impression.
But they did get the filth under control. It took a third to a half of the then (known) population of the world to die (hot damn, Sam I Am! That’s a lot of gloom material). Sometimes it takes a lot, after all… Oh, and it took a while, yes? London suffered from all manner of diseases and outbreaks before it was actually cleaned. That was BEFORE the invention of the auto. But after London had suffered horribly, the LACK of creativity solved the biggest problem: in 1666 the latest version of the plague was wiped out with that little fire thing…
I see gloom and doom Sayers as predicting, warning, reminding and nagging ( mostly unsuccessfully) from the memory of the past. And they aren’t always correct, but people do forget to learn from the past all the time. And some of these warnings actually do come true. The question for me is, how many people die before Ford and Daimler and Bazalgette and Lister get creative? And HOW do they know what to solve first? Have they been listening to gloomy predictions or remember some historical event?
Secondly, I was looking for a quote by W. C. Fields about the next world war should be fought by placing all the world’s leaders in a stadium and letting them go at each other with pillowcases full of manure…and this page popped up. Now I would say that’s a positive thing for the future.
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Pingback by Cinco falacias argumentativas y una falacia metodológica sin las que el decrecionismo no es argumentable on 25 May 2012:
[...] «Como el mundo es finito, los recursos se agotarán en breve» (falacia catastrofista). Es seguramente la falacia más obvia, pero «funciona» porque se basa en las dificultades de nuestro cerebro para valorar probabilidades a partir de ciertas escalas. Que los recursos sean finitos no quiere decir que su utilización vaya a conducir al agotamiento a corto plazo, pero si le unimos «mala ciencia» en forma de falacia ricardiana (ver arriba), tendremos una larga tradición de alarmas que se desvanecieron. [...]