A Reviewer’s Notebook – 1975/3
How little we know about the mainsprings of history. Most historical works make much of hero-politicians or the convergence of social forces. But a good case can be made that history turns on the activities of the inventor and the enterpriser, men who start things that deflect and modify the social currents and force the hero-politician to grapple with the unexpected and the unforeseen.
In World War II Winston Churchill, a hero-politician, stood up to Hitler, who had floated to power in a Germany that had been through the inflationary mill and couldn’t find the means to pay for World War I reparations. But where would Churchill have been if certain "wizards" had not, in 1940, been able to equip some seven hundred Royal Air Force planes with a mysterious device called radar? It was radar that gave eyes to the air pilots on whom the West depended. It was, as Churchill himself acknowledged, the "war of the wizards." The Fascists were licked, not because they lacked wizards of their own, but because their theories of social organization, which stressed the collective rather than the individual, did not give full scope to the creativity of the "boffins," as the scientific innovators of the day were called.
Radar was a British invention, but it was an American company, little Raytheon of Massachusetts, that refined it and produced it in a volume that not only saved England but enabled the crippled U.S. Navy to stop the Japanese in the Pacific. And radar was only one example of the wizard contributions of Raytheon technicians. The war at sea could have been lost if it had not been for underseas detection devices provided by the same Yankee boffins. Eventually Raytheon moved into all sorts of homing devices that enabled missiles to strike airborne intruders without outside guidance, thus enabling the defense to catch up with the attack in the never-ending seesaw of war.
The story of the Raytheon company has been told in a beautifully inspiriting book. The Creative Ordeal, by Otto J. Scott (Atheneum, $12.95), that is even more the history of an era than it is of a single corporation. The indispensable company is probably as much of a myth as the indispensable man, but if the Raytheon story had not been what it was we would all be living in a vastly different world.
Research and Development
I confess that the nature of what goes on inside the mysterious tubes and semi-conductors and guidance systems that are the heart of the electronic revolution seems as ultimately unknowable to me as electricity itself. But men don’t have to know what electricity is to use it, and electronics is more of the same. Furthermore, men don’t have to know where they are going to start things; it is enough that they let their curiosity carry them along. Raytheon’s predecessor company, the American Research and Development Corporation, hoped to make something by selling radio transmitters, but its prime asset at the start was Dr. Vannevar Bush of MIT, whose ideas about research and development ramified in several directions. Bush had a college roommate and partner, Laurence Marshall, who was a physics major in search of something more challenging than life in a classroom or a laboratory. Before Bush and Marshall and other men of AMRAD moved on to become Raytheon they tinkered with thermostatic discs and refrigerators, not realizing that the professorial C. G. Smith, their refrigerator inventor, had a better role in his mysterious thermionic tubes. Smith’s new tubes were destined to push the radio industry into many unforeseen directions. But it was Laurence Marshall, the physics major turned entrepreneur, who became the soul of Raytheon.
The Demands of War —Space Flights and Kitchenware
Raytheon remained a mixed bag of interests, making welding machines, rectifier tubes, miniature components for hearing aids and what-not until war broke out in Europe in 1938. It was the war that brought Raytheon into its own. Whole navies had to be provided with radar eyes to protect themselves. The war in the air demanded radar tracking stations. When the buzz bombs began to descend on Britain, gun-laying radars developed by Raytheon were able to direct a barrage that destroyed ninety per cent of the bombs before they could land and do any damage. If the military had only known how to use the radar it already had in Hawaii in 1941, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor would have been a monumental fiasco. Young radar watchers followed the incoming Japanese planes on a screen for fateful miles and precious minutes, but they could not get anyone to take the blips seriously. The planes were thought to be American planes, even though they were coming from a strange quarter of the compass. Proving, no doubt, that the technological achievements of man often outrun the ability to make simple commonsense applications of the most marvelous devices.
After World War II there were other crises, even other wars. Raytheon’s Lab 16 moved into the world of Sparrow and Hawk, missiles that could rise in the air and seek out low-flying enemy planes that had penetrated below the ordinary radar defenses. The moon shots provided further opportunity for Raytheon experimentation. And, on a more mundane level, Raytheon microwave ovens enabled restaurants and housewives to provide well-cooked meals almost in the blinking of an eye.
Woven into History
Otto Scott might have spoiled his story by drowning it in technical details. The narrative is incredibly crowded, but it is lightened and enlivened by its fusion with general history. The glittering Twenties give way to the tribulations of the Thirties, with New Deal Washington doing little or nothing to keep U.S. industry in a creative mood. But the industrial system kept working in spite of a politics that failed to comprehend its intimate needs. When the war came, the suppressed energies of the businessmen were fully equal to the task of backing up the military.
In Mr. Scott’s story the men of Raytheon come clear even though some of their inventions seem virtually indescribable to those whose native language does not happen to be mathematics. The unknown heroes who provided the tools which known heroes such as Winston Churchill used to finish the job include Percy Spencer, an untutored genius whose 138 patents enabled little Raytheon to keep up with General Electric, Westinghouse and other giants of the industry. Laurence Marshall, Dr. Vannevar Bush’s sidekick, carried Raytheon on his sturdy entrepreneur’s shoulders until he became diverted by anthropological undertakings. His successor, Charles Francis Adams, Jr., a descendant of John and John Quincy Adams, brought a New England rectitude to the company that enabled it to survive the attempts of conglomerators to move it into channels that would have made it a stock market liability when times turned bad.
Through it all, the men of Raytheon continued to be patriots even more than they were scientists and businessmen. Part of a military-industrial complex, they were not in it for the money, although the money happened to be a useful by-product of sound sense. If the U.S. ceases to breed such dedicated men, it will surely succumb in a future that is certain to see laser weapons supplanting the atomic missile. It took the wizards to win World War II, and if our wizardry falters, we will lose World War III before it ever comes down to the first battle.
CONFESSIONS OF A PRICE CONTROLLER by C. Jackson Grayson, Jr., with Louis Neeb (Homewood, Ill.: Dow Jones-Irwin, Inc., 1974) 265 pp.
Reviewed by Melvin D. Barger
Back in mid-October, 1971, C. Jackson Grayson, Jr., was surprised to receive an urgent call from Washington offering him the post of Chairman of the Price Commission. The Phase I price freeze was ending in a few weeks, and the Nixon Administration was now moving down the rocky road towards the country’s first peacetime experiment with formal price controls. As Grayson remembers it, the offer — which he refused at first — was a "chance that will never come again."
Confessions of a Price Controller is a highly readable, interesting account of what happened after Jack Grayson left his job as Dean of the Southern Methodist University business administration school and went to Washington to fix the nation’s prices. The book is a valuable addition to the literature of free market economics because it shows how and why things go wrong when Government sets out to stabilize prices. Like many business-school professionals, Grayson is a believer in the free market who is willing to accept some government intervention for pragmatic reasons. But one does get the impression that Grayson’s 15 months as a price controller had the effect of transforming him into a more outspoken advocate of the free marketplace, because he has since warned repeatedly against a reinstatement of price controls in any form.
Grayson’s arguments will not sway those who insist on rigid price and wage controls. In this camp, it is a rule of faith that price controls can be administered effectively only by persons who believe in them. Grayson obviously looked on his Phase II mission as a temporary venture that should be phased out as soon as possible. A true believer in price controls would have regarded the moderate Phase II program as the launching pad for permanent and extensive controls.
For a nonbeliever, Grayson carried out his assignment heroically and honestly. Starting from scratch, he put together an organization and developed a basic program in only 16 days. At the very outset, however, the Price Commission became engulfed in the practical problems of price controls. There was the thorny problem of establishing a "base" period for the prices of each industry; as it turned out, there was almost no way to do this in an equitable manner for each company. There was the problem of deciding which companies should be under prenotification, reporting and surveillance. The decision to require prenotification for firms of $100 million or more in annual sales, rather than only those above the $250 million level, tripled the Price Commission’s workload. There was also the problem of deciding which wage increases would be allowed to "pass through" as costs in price increases.
The Phase II Price Commission functioned with a staff of about 600, a lean organization for the complex task of "stabilizing" prices at predetermined levels throughout the U.S. economy. Grayson admits that Phase II controls relied heavily on "voluntary compliance," and he goes on to point out that a rigid, highly enforceable price control program would have required a staff of a hundred thousand people or more. As each price boost prenotification came to the Commission’s attention, it always proved to have specific problems that were characteristic of a single company or a particular industry. Dow Chemical, for example, was granted a flat two per cent increase across its entire product line when the Commission was informed that as many as one hundred thousand applications might be needed to cover every Dow product. Costs soared in the construction industry, and pricing problems developed in petroleum, zinc, sugar, silver, wheat, fish, poultry, and cement. There was a reasonable attempt to make pricing exceptions to avoid hardship for various industries, but each exception, of course, helped give rise to the demand for others.
Grayson also gives the impression that the Commission and staff members were often divided or confused on key policy matters, and sometimes changed course as a matter of political expediency. In a very revealing comment, he explains that economic policy making in Washington "is a compromise — and often a heated one —of various points of view, many times with a paucity of data, gun slinging, interpersonal bickering, and widely differing recommendations… I had assumed — and I think it’s true of the average citizen — that wise, gray-headed economic elders, assembled around a polished mahogany table, would lead the way to truth via factual logic and calm discussion… Of course it doesn’t happen that way."
The way it did happen was that price control regulations were becoming more of a sieve than a barrier by the end of 1972, and both the public and the Administration were ready for the end of Phase II in January, 1973. Grayson helped preside over the liquidation of his own position, and one cannot help feeling that the timing for his departure was excellent. By mid-1973, prices were beginning to snowball, although the Administration still talked hopefully through Phases III and IV.
It was probably no chance thing that Grayson got out just in time. A man with excellent political instincts, he can sense when a movement or an idea has run its course. Price control wasn’t working, and it is doubtful that the Price Commission could have retained more than a shred of its credibility into 1973. Grayson undoubtedly realized this, and the demise of Phase II also left him free to speak out against price controls and to point out the contradictions in any price control system.
In the closing pages of his book, Grayson makes a good defense of the free market system. He also admitted, shortly before closing out the Commission, that "Even with its imperfections, the marketplace is still better than we are." Like Dr. Ben Rogge, of Wabash College, he also harks back to Joseph A. Schumpeter’s warnings about the threats of price control and other measures to the private enterprise system.
The major shortcoming of Gray-son’s book is in his failure to indict government’s arbitrary expansion of the money supply and credit as the cause of inflation. He admits that "stimulating demandto achieve low unemployment risks inflation." He would have performed a valuable service by explaining what "stimulating demand" really means and how this basically Keynesian approach has steadily eroded the American dollar.
Despite this flaw, Grayson has given an honest portrayal of his 15 months as Chairman of the Price Commission. Now that inflation has reached double-digit rates, there will be renewed attempts to resort to self-defeating and contradictory price control measures. We may someday find ourselves under a price control system managed by a person who really believes in controls. But at least Grayson has given some convincing reasons for being a nonbeliever.
Editor’s Note: When the same mail brings reviews of the same book, and when the subject is as urgent as the matter of price controls, it seems appropriate to share both reviews. The one which follows is by Dr. Hans F. Sennholz.
C. Jackson Grayson and Louis Neeb’s Confessions of A Price Controller is a remarkably honest report on the way price controls were created and operated in the Nixon Phase II. Their honesty, which shines through their many admissions of price control chaos, the influence of power, pressure and politics, and finally, their repentance of it all, makes it a redemptive book that affords new hope to the reader. They became honest men which, you may be sure, left two rascals less in Washington.
The book sheds some light on the economic rationale that led the Nixon Administration to the price control system. It was expressed by Paul McCracken and Herb Stein of the Council of Economic Advisors in their first meeting with newly appointed Chairman Grayson: "Not much in classical economics seems to be working, why don’t you come up with something on your own rather than be prejudiced by our views." (p. 7)
Surely it is difficult to fathom the reasoning of Nixon lieutenants. But it is incredible that they should have believed sincerely that they were conducting classical economic policies. They were running the biggest budgetary deficits in peacetime history, at double the Johnson rates during the Vietnam War, and were inflating the money supply at two-digit rates, and then conclude — without even blushing or suffering a stroke —that "not much in classical economics seems to be working."
The truth is that classical economists, yea even Mercantile and Medieval economists, have explained the consequences of such wild spending and inflating rather well. Goods prices must rise and the purchasing power of the monetary unit must fall. Classical economists, such as Smith and Ricardo, even explained the consequences of government price controls, the inevitable shortages and the ensuing economic disintegration. Could it be that the professors of economics serving on the Nixon Council of Economic Advisors had forgotten their classical economics? Or were they motivated by personal or political considerations?
They obviously confused their Keynesian economic recipes which they were following faithfully with "classical economics." If they would have had the courage to admit openly to the world that Keynesian policies had failed conclusively, they would be long remembered for honesty and courage. But instead, they preferred to hold on to the discredited recipes and to the confusion. What Haldeman and Ehrlichman did at Watergate, McCracken, Stein, and Shultz perpetrated in the economy.
Grayson’s role in the price controls system was that of the master sergeant. He drilled the producers and merchants of peanut butter, applesauce, lumber, frozen foods, and a million other commodities. He drilled them in the cities and in the country, from coast to coast, millions of Americans of all ages. And like most sergeants he gave them much noise and many words, but little argument and less sense. There is probably nothing absurd or ridiculous in economic life that has not at some time been said and done by him and the other price commissioners. His book is a cogent brief on the absurdities of price controls.









