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Sheldon Richman

How Bad Is It?

Some needed perspective on the recession from economist Alan Reynolds in the New York Post:

With one exception – the steep 45 percent drop in the S&P 500 stock index since October 2007 – few other indicators of economic distress could support this being the worst postwar recession. Thanks to low inflation, for example, real disposable income rose every month during the fourth quarter – at an annual rate above 6 percent.

Have a look at his chart:

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  1. Which of those numbers hasn’t been manipulated since the 1980s? I prefer ShadowStats numbers which make more of those cateogies far to the bad, my recollection is many make the Current the worst in Unemployment and Inflation at least. And what goods a low 30-yr mortgage rate if your house keeps falling in value?

  2. Granted the problems with numbers per se, the question is whether the standard for arriving at them has been consistence since WWII. I don’t know the answer. I posted this for thought and perhaps discussion. This is for comparison with past recessions. Reynolds is not saying it’s not bad, only that it’s not as bad as earlier ones. That could be true. Politicians, would-be court economists, and the media have an incentive to overstate the severity for all the obvious reasons.

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